As much as I'd like to believe the Pacers have a chance to beat the Heat, I don't think they do

Indiana's chances of winning the Eastern Conference Finals went out the window the second Paul George and Sam Young let LeBron James glide right past them for the winning layup at the buzzer of Game 1.  My feeling about the Heat is that they don't really play very well until they are put in danger.  After winning the series opener, it was no big deal for Miami to drop Game 2 at home.  They came out and easily won Game 3 on the road by 18.  Assuming the Heat bounce back strong again tonight, they'll have two more opportunities to close out the series.  Maybe Indiana gets Game 6 at home, but does anybody really believe they'd then go on and take Game 7 in Miami as well?

Even if the Pacers do manage to win tonight and take a 3-2 lead, I still don't like their chances.  Last year the Celtics were in the same situation, up 3-2 and heading back home for ECF Game 6 against Maimi.  Then LeBron had the game of his life (45 points on 19-26 shooting, 15 rebounds) and the Heat won by 19 in Boston.

There's also the fact that if the Pacers are to win the series by avoiding a Game 7 in Miami, it would require to Heat to lose 3 games in a row.   Before this series Miami had lost a total of 3 games (44-3) since February 1st.

There is a silver lining though.  The Heat are 47-6 in their last 53 contests, but 3 of those 6 losses have come against Indiana.  And if you look back to the NBA Finals two years ago, Miami held a 2-1 advantage over Dallas before dropping the final 3 games to the eventual champion Mavericks.  I didn't see that coming...

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